Probability Hub
Historical odds for every setup.
What's the base rate for SPX finishing green on a Monday when the prior Friday closed in the red? For NVDA gapping up more than 1% on FOMC day? Probability Hub answers those questions instantly, from years of intraday history.
What you actually get.
Hourly probability grid
Every hour of every session in the last five years, bucketed by direction. Instant read on 'what usually happens' at 10 ET on OpEx day.
Intraday statistics
Median move, drift bias, and hit rate for any hour bucket in your ticker's history. No spreadsheet required.
SPX constituent coverage
Top S&P 500 names with enough history to compute stable base rates. Small-caps and thin names are excluded to avoid noise.
Live intraday overlay
Today's session marks over the historical distribution so you can see if the current move is inside normal range or three sigmas away.
Regime-aware
Filter base rates by VIX regime, prior-day direction, or day of week. Base rates are only useful if the setup you're measuring resembles the one you're taking.
Free during beta
The full hourly grid and intraday statistics are free while we're in beta.
Frequently asked.
Where do the historical statistics come from?
Five years of daily and 1-minute bars from Yahoo Finance, aggregated into hourly buckets and stored in Supabase. Refreshed after every session close so the grid always reflects the latest tape.
How is this different from an implied-probability tool like OptionStrat?
Implied probabilities read what the options market thinks will happen; Probability Hub tells you what actually did happen in similar setups. Using both together — implied vs realized — is where the edge lives.
Which tickers are covered?
The S&P 500 constituents plus the major sector ETFs — the names with enough continuous history to produce statistically stable base rates. That's exactly the universe where hourly probabilities are actually reliable.
Is this trading advice?
No — Probability Hub is an analytical tool for describing what happened historically, and TensaFi does not provide investment advice. Every trader stays in full control of their own decisions.